Nigeria bounced back from last week’s home defeat by Guinea-Bissau by beating the same opponents 1-0 on Monday, with Moses Simon scoring the only goal of the game from the penalty spot.
After victory over Guinea-Bissau on Monday, what do the Super Eagles need to do to get over the line and reach the Ivory Coast?
It was hardly a convincing display by the Super Eagles, but the win nonetheless takes them back above Guinea-Bissau into top spot in Group A.
Here are the permutations lying ahead for Jose Peseiro’s side, and what they need to do to confirm their place at the Nations Cup.
They’ve been a bogey team for Nigeria in the past, but Nigeria now know—clearly—that one more victory would confirm their place among the elite.
They can’t be caught by Sao Tome e Principe, so victory over Sierra Leone in their next group game—in June—would take them out of reach of the Leone Stars and secured of their place at the tournament.
Draw with Sierra Leone
A draw with Sierra Leone would also be enough to guarantee the Super Eagles their place in the Ivory Coast, demonstrating just how strong the West Africans’ position is as the tournament draws closer.
Naija, currently on nine points, are four ahead of Sierra Leone, and would retain that advantage with only one more match to play if they hold off their old foe in their next competitive fixture.
Lose to Sierra Leone…
However, things start to get much more complicated for Nigeria if they fail to beat Sierra Leone in their next qualifier—the potentially decisive meeting between the two sides in June.
If Nigeria lose, they would both be opening the door for the Leone Stars to move back into contention—they’d move up to eight points behind Nigeria’s nine—while Guinea-Bissau, currently on seven points, could move up to top spot with a win over Sao Tome.
Lose to Sierra Leone, but beat Sao Tome
Knowing they have tiny Sao Tome e Principe at home in their final game—a team Peseiro’s troops have already smashed 10-0—should give the Eagles some comfort heading into the bout with Sierra Leone.
Even if Nigeria lose that game, meaning the Leone Stars move one point behind them, they’ll be conscious that victory over Sao Tome would nonetheless take them to 12 points—a tally that one of Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone will be unable to match.
If Nigeria move up to 12, and the Leone Stars win both of their outstanding matches, then both sides would progress to the tournament with the Eagles in top spot.
Lose to Sierra Leone, draw to Sao Tome
Should Nigeria take only one point from their next two matches—losing to the Leone Stars and being held by Sao Tome—then things start looking a little dicier.
In this scenario, Jose Peseiro would surely be liberated of his job, but it still wouldn’t prevent Nigeria from reaching the CIV.
In this scenario, Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau could end up on 10 points, with Sierra Leone moving up to 11 points if they win both of their outstanding matches.
Here, both the Super Eagles and the Djurtus would be tied on head-to-head points, goals scored, goals conceded etc, then Nigeria’s superior goal difference (currently +11 to Guinea-Bissau’s +4) would surely prove insurmountable.
Lose both matches
Surely an unthinkable outcome for Peseiro and the NFF, but given the Eagles’ performances recently, you perhaps wouldn’t put it past them!
In this scenario, Nigeria would end the campaign with the nine points they currently have.
Assuming Sierra Leone beat Guinea-Bissau and the Djurtus beat Sao Tome, then the Eagles would be eliminated as both SL (11) and GNB (10) would have more points than them.
This would surely spell the end of Nigerian football as we know it…!
Could Nigeria lose both games but still qualify?
If Nigeria lose both matches to end the series on nine points, they could still progress if Guinea-Bissau beat Sierra Leone.
Even if they draw, it would then come down to head-to-head between Nigeria and Sierra Leone, so a 3-2 away defeat for the Eagles—in which they scored more away goals than the Stars managed in Abuja last June—would see them progressing to the tournament proper at their fellow West Africans’ expense.
